Activity within the construction industry has traditionally been subject to volatile cyclical fluctuations. The RLB Market Activity Cycle is a representation of the development activity cycle for the construction industry within the general economy.
RLB considers 10 sectors to be representative of the construction industry as a whole. Each sector is assessed as to which of three activity level zones – peak, mid and trough – best represents the current status of the sector within the cycle. This assessment is then refined by identifying whether the current status is in a growth phase or a decline phase.
Here we look at the changes in the relative position of each region and sector and the change in market activity overall to gauge global sentiment on movements.
Overall sector activity globally is depicted here, compared with levels of activity reported at Q2 2023.
Where a red downward triangle is shown, overall average global sector activity is lower than in Q2 2023.
Where a green upward-pointing triangle is shown, overall average global sector activity is higher than in Q2 2023.
Where a blue equal sign is shown, activity is broadly similar to the level of Q2 2023.
The global trend in houses is downwards – impacted in many locations by the cost of borrowing. Industrial is trending downwards, from historic highs, and retail and offices are both trending upwards, from historic lows.
Taking a similar approach regionally, with only two regions tracking upwards movement through the cycle, the perception may be one of gloom. But sector sentiment shows that within regions there is cause to be optimistic over the outlook, even where a region’s overall movement may be tracking downwards.
The Middle East and Europe are the stand-out growth areas, with the former having a number of giga projects supporting activity, and the latter’s activity reflecting the diversity of countries and sectors that comprise the region.
Globally, the overall shift in market activity has been away from the mid-cycle zone, though with more sectors trending upwards than downwards.
